RUSSIA IS IN A DEMOGRAPHIC ABYSS

28 Mar, 10:24
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RUSSIA IS IN A DEMOGRAPHIC ABYSS

An alternative analytical opinion

Alexander Potemkin,

Doctor of Economics

Public media personalities, such as fake-lovers Dmitri Kiselyov, Artem Sheynin, Olga Skabeyeva, Yevgeni Popov, and Vladimir Solovyov, as well as economists Mikhail Delyagin and Yakov Mirkin, although they are not the only ones, have been filling the airways with fabricated stories, rude statements, and outright lies, as well as insulting representatives of Western culture and politics.

For several years now I have been trying to draw public attention to the actual number of people living de facto in Russia.

I am convinced that in 2022 there will be no more than 100 million people permanently residing in the Russian Federation. This number includes legal and illegal migrants. More than 30 million Russians live abroad—most of them in America, Europe, North Africa and the CIS countries.

According to the law, a Russian family living in any country of the civilized world has the right to obtain a residence permit or second citizenship, as well as a Russian passport, at a Russian embassy or consulate, for their child born outside of Russia. I know many families whose children have Russian passports but have never been to this country.

Over 3.5 million people officially live with Russian passports in Germany alone. And there are many more people who have retained the right to Russian citizenship, but have not yet officially declared it. In general, the statistics relating to Russian citizens permanently residing abroad are as follows (million people):

USA

3.13

Holland

0.072

Finland

0.07

Canada

0.622

Sweden

0.020

Azerbaijan

1.6

Lithuania

0.134

Switzerland

0.015

Georgia

0.04

Latvia

0.557

Turkey

0.300

Ukraine

0.9001

Estonia

0.320

Greece

0.401

Moldova

0.354

France

0.115

Bulgaria

0.032

Cyprus

0.080

Italy

0.038

Croatia

0.001

Australia

0.06

Great Britain

0.306

Serbia

0.004

New Zealand

0.015

Spain

0.084

The Czech Republic

0.035

South Korea

0.062

Portugal

0.005

Poland

0.013

Japan

0.008

Belgium

0.060

Montenegro

0.001

China

0.075

Denmark

0.003

Norway

0.021

India

0.029

Thailand

0.060

Tunisia

0.003

Cuba

0.060

Vietnam

0.055

Morocco

0.037

Brazil

0.422

Columbia

0.003

Egypt

0.200

Argentina

0.150

Germany

3.5

Algeria

0.087

Uzbekistan

0.073

Kazakhstan

0.182

Tajikistan

0.050

Kyrgyzstan

0.045

Turkmenistan

0.001

Bolivia

0.002

Nigeria

0.003

Iran

0.004

Mozambique

0.0002

The Congo

0.002

Israel

0.250

UAE

0.060

Syria

0.050

So-called:

DNR

0.365

LNR

0.355

Abkhazia

0.220

South Ossetia

0.053

Transnistria

0.213

1 Citizens of Ukraine holding Russian passports

This gives us a total of 65 countries where 16.09 million Russian citizens officially reside. I do not have any information on the statistics for other countries.

And there are almost as many Russians living in other countries of the world who have not declared to the local authorities that they also hold Russian passports.

Entrepreneurs have established trading platforms all over the world for providing their fellow countrymen with food and other household services. For example, there is the European Mix Markt chain that specializes in the sale of Russian products. This network is one of the leaders in the German retail market with an annual turnover of 350 million euros. The first Mix Markt was founded in 1997; since then the chain has been constantly expanding and is now represented by 336 supermarkets in Germany and all over Europe. Furthermore, there is a network of so-called Russian stores in the EU amounting to 52 retail facilities. In America, the Russian retail network is also well developed and very widespread. RussianTable in the U.S. delivers food products to 48 states. The NetCost Market supermarket chain operates in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and the largest supermarket, Pacific Coast Food (which has 30,000 square feet of Russian goods), is located in Sacramento. The online megastore Russian Food and Moscow on Hudson will deliver the best Russian food from New York City right to your doorstep at any address in the United States.

Certain media personalities, such as Dmitri Kiselyov, Artem Sheynin, Olga Skabeyeva, Yevgeni Popov, Vladimir Solovyov, Mikhail Delyagin and Yakov Mirkin, as well as the heads of the Institute of Demography of the Higher School of Economics and the Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, count the Russian population based on the number of passports and birth certificates issued. Birth certificates provide us with only general statistics. But these citizens themselves do not directly participate in the country’s life, in the formation of its GDP, in the replenishment of budget revenues, in the demographic processes, or even in elections.

In actual fact, Russia is in a demographic abyss with a population of less than 100 million people. Many entrepreneurs complain that they cannot find enough employees. And for every 1,000 people of working age, there are 786 incapacitated people, the number of which has decreased compared to previous years due to raised pension limits.

Who do these political scientists and economists what to fool when they say that there are 145-146 million people living in Russia? Themselves? Their own countrymen? Foreigners? Germans, Americans, Japanese, and Chinese are better informed about the true demographic situation in Russia. Perhaps it is beneficial to the regional authorities and governors? To justify the federal and local budget expenditures they are responsible for or to receive funding for state programs? It is impossible to change the socioeconomic situation without recognizing the true size of the country’s population.

The actual size of the Russian Federation population can be determined by using a simple projection technique, without relying on modern computer technology and complex mathematical models, based on life events and recorded facts, such as life expectancy and the birth and death rates between 1990 and2021.

According to official statistics, life expectancy in Russia between 1990 and 2021 was 68.4 years. This is rather low compared to the U.S. (78.4 years), Germany (81.7 years), China (77.4 years), Japan (84.3 years), South Korea (83.3 years), Great Britain (81.4 years), Switzerland (83.4 years) and India (70.8 years).

The average birth rate in the Russian Federation between 1990 and 2021 was 1,572,822 people per year or 50,330,297 people over this 32-year period.

The average death rate in the Russian Federation between 1990 and 2021 was 2,049,624 per year or 65,587,952 people over 32 years.

The average natural loss per year between 1990 and 2021 was 476,802 people (1,572,822-2,049,624) or 15,257,664 people over 32 years.

The total birth rate over 68.4 years amounts to 107,581,010 people (68.4 years/32 years x 50,330,297).

The total population loss over 68.4 years amounts to 32,613,257 people (68.4 years/32 years x 15,257,664 people). Despite the forecast of an increase in life expectancy, people in Russia will continue to die at an earlier age, especially men (due to alcoholism, drug addiction, traffic accidents, military conflicts, the quality of medicine, and social insecurity).

Thus, by 2050-2058, the country’s total population, not including migration flows, will amount to no more than 74,967,753 people. And the population density on the largest territory of the planet will be 4.37 people per square kilometer. If there is an increase in the flow of external migration or participation in hostilities, the decline in population to crisis level will come a decade sooner.

This spells a demographic, political, economic, military and environmental catastrophe for Russia.

Compared to other countries of the world, the population density of China is 146 persons per square kilometer, of the United States (not including Alaska) 40 persons per square kilometer, of Japan 334 persons per square kilometer, of Germany 232 persons per square kilometer, of South Korea 517 persons per square kilometer, of Britain 275 persons per square kilometer, of Switzerland 206 persons per square kilometer, etc. Compared to these countries, the indicators of human capital and reserves for forming the consumer market, and hence the entire Russian economy, are negligible. These values are insufficient even to support the internal and external needs of the state, much less ensure the protection and development of individuals and society as a whole.

These numbers will make it impossible for the country to sustain itself. The country is doomed to disappearing entirely from the political map of the world.

According to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), as of 1 January, 2022, there were 145,478,097 permanent residents in the country. This is a lie. Because according to the above calculation of the probable size of the population over 36 years from 2022 to 2058, the country would have to lose up to 50% of its population, which is impossible, since this already looks like the extinction of the Russian people. This means that the figure announced by Rosstat of 145 million people does not correspond to reality and does not confirm the stated number.

Another very important aspect of the distortion of the factual situation concerning the Russia’s catastrophically small population is the All-Russian Population Census of 2020-2021.

In 1990, the country’s entire population amounted to 147.7 million people.

Between 1990 and 2021, it decreased by 15.3 million people.

The outflow of external migration during this period amounted to approximately 30 million people.

The final result of the population flows was to be the reference point for the census.

In 2020-2021, people could participate in the census online, in addition to the classical door-to-door method. But the methodology of the electronic census raises many questions. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Chernyshenko gave the following information at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, saying that a total of 135 million accounts are registered on the State Services portal, 78.5 million are confirmed but unverified, while 18 million are verified, that is, those of citizens who have confirmed their passport details and individual insurance account number. And only with such an account were 18 million people eligible to participate in the census online. How many of them actually participated in the census is unknown, because they could also have participated in its classical form. According to my estimates, no more than 30 percent of the 18 million did so, given the mentality and lack of faith of Russian citizens in the government’s “concern for the people.”

As for the classical census, carried out by so-called hired census-takers, the main fact that points to a “fictitious census” is the established rules. One of which says, “One of the principles of the census is that all answers are recorded based only on your own word. No documents need be presented. Your name won’t appear on the census form either.”

Is this the way to count the country’s population, when anyone, including tourists who have come to see the Kremlin, people on business trips, temporary workers, etc., can be included in the census? A census-taker can simply count the same person several times in different places, because this person likes to visit his friends. You have to agree that this is either deliberate stupidity or outright lying, on which, by the way, more than 32 billion rubles were spent.

At the same time, Deputy Head of Rosstat Pavel Smelov reports that more than 99% of Russians took part in the census. But none of my friends or acquaintances, or any of their acquaintances, saw or spoke to a census-taker, nor did they participate in the census, simply because no one came to see them or even tried to count them. Of the 73 people from Moscow and St. Petersburg I interviewed, no one confirmed their participation in the census. What about you? What information do you have about the last census? Did the census-takers come to you?

And the figures constantly published by Rosstat, based on their calculations extrapolated from specially developed algorithms and mathematical formulas (by the way, even any non-existent law of physics can be proved by a mathematical formula that is specially created for bogus calculations that have no bearing on reality), are false.

If the government determines that the purpose of the census is to obtain objective data, as well as be of applied and scientific significance, this data must be verified and personal responsibility taken for the ensuing results and figures.

In 2020, the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) presented data from a survey on the emigration mood of Russians. When asked, “Would you like to go and live abroad permanently?” 38% of 18- to 24-year-olds responded, “Most likely yes.” Isn’t this a response to the media, political, social, and economic atmosphere in Russia?

Dear Dmitri Kiselyov, Artem Sheynin, Olga Skabeyeva, Yevgeni Popov, Karen Shakhnazarov, Vladimir Solovyov, Mikhail Delyagin and Yakov Mirkin! Your smug and smiling faces during live broadcasts filled with lies about many of your close neighbors and the representatives of countries further away, look, against the background of Russia’s demographic abyss, like a mockery of the imminent ominous fate of your own country!

Contemporary Russian public political scientists and economists in the media appear very convincing at first glance, but they are never countered by serious experts! The producers of these programs do not allow academic scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences or other authoritative Western polemicists to participate in these shows.

Russia is surrounded by more than 3.5 billion people—China, Japan, India, Iran, Turkey, Poland, and the Scandinavian countries. Russia’s unpopulated territory will encourage its neighbors to annex this vacant land, which historically belonged to them. For example, Baikal is called Baigal in Mongolian, which means “Nature,” and the city of Irkutsk, according to Mongolian sources, was founded by Mongols and called Erhüü. The Chinese also have a claim to Baikal. In Chinese, it is called Beihai, “fertile lake” (rich in fish). The Chinese consider most of Russia’s eastern territories to be historically theirs and will claim them if they are not settled.

I am enclosing a map of the Qing Dynasty (seventeenth to nineteenth century).

Potemkin Alexander

Cofounder of the planetary environmental Hamburg Club, Hamburg

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